business 🚨 Fiscal deficit risks bigger than CPI scare
The market is currently relaxed about the July US CPI reading, expecting core inflation to hit 2.5% YoY. However, attention is shifting to the deteriorating fiscal deficit, which is a key driver for bond supply. The 2026 fiscal deficit is projected to reach $2.1 trillion due to tariff refund adjustments. If the July number confirms this rise to around $400bn, the credit story for Treasuries could weaken. This might lead to a re-widening of the 10yr swap spread towards 50bp. 📉